France are still the team to beat at the World Cup, with Ousmane Dembele’s hat-trick helping them stay top of the rankings after the second day of the round of 32. The Athletic’s live projection tool now gives France a 21 per cent chance of winning the tournament, the clearest sign yet that they are the leading contender as the field narrows.
That answer matters today because the knockout rounds have already begun to cut away some of the teams expected to go deepest. Germany and the Netherlands, both inside the top 10 of the rankings, went out on penalties, while Brazil and Morocco stayed alive after wins that kept their runs moving. France, by contrast, did not just survive; they stayed on top after winning all three of their group games, one of only three sides to do so.
Deschamps missed the match because of the death of his mother, but he is expected to return for the knockouts, and France will need that stability with the bracket tightening. A projection tool like this is not a prediction of fate; it is a live calculation built from team strength, results, and how far each side has advanced. That is why a single round of penalties can change the picture so sharply. Paraguay’s win over Germany was one example, and it underlined how fast a tournament can punish even highly ranked teams.
France have the edge for now, but the number also leaves room for the tournament to turn on one bad night. Brazil are still in the mix, Lionel Messi leads the scoring with six goals, and Spain and England are moving on as well. France next face Sweden in the round of 32, and if they are going to turn a 21 per cent chance into the title, that is where the pressure starts to become real.
