France and Argentina moved clear of the field as the knockout stage began, with updated odds showing a sharp split between the top two favorites and everyone else. France was listed at +300 on BetMGM, +340 on FanDuel and +350 on DraftKings, while Argentina sat at +400 as Lionel Messi kept pace in the Golden Boot race.
The timing matters because the group stage had only just ended, and the betting board was reset for elimination games. France also came in as the only team besides Argentina to win all three group matches by multiple goals, and The Athletic’s forecast tool gave it a 20 percent chance to win the tournament, a figure that still leaves the favorite well short of certainty.
Messi is still driving the Argentina story. He leads the Golden Boot race with six goals and scored on Saturday even though he did not start against Jordan, a reminder that the defending champions are getting production from their captain without leaning on him for every minute. Argentina also moved ahead of Spain to second on the odds board, which is the clearest sign that the market is rewarding both form and results, not just reputation.
Spain and England were next in line, with matching odds at +650 on FanDuel and +700 on DraftKings and BetMGM. Spain has not allowed a goal so far, and Mexico has not allowed a goal so far either, but that defensive edge has not been enough to overtake France or Argentina in a market that is now measuring knockout survival as much as clean sheets. For readers comparing where the field stands, Brazil, Portugal, the Netherlands and Germany were all listed at 20-to-1 or shorter, which keeps the chase group crowded behind the leaders.
France’s path is still the more demanding one. It next faces Sweden and could run into Germany after that, while Spain and England remain close enough in the market to make any slip costly. France had already looked dominant with Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise, and it was Dembélé who added another jolt Friday with a hat trick against Norway. The top eight teams before the tournament are still the top eight teams in the odds now, which means the first week of knockouts has confirmed the hierarchy more than it has shaken it.
That leaves the same two names at the top, but not for the same reason. France has the strongest statistical profile, Argentina has Messi and the defending champion label, and the next rounds will decide whether the market’s clean split holds or starts to blur. For now, the World Cup winners picture is simple: France and Argentina are ahead, and the rest are still chasing.
