Winning the coin toss in a World Cup penalty shootout can matter more than many fans think. Research cited by found that the team that wins the toss has gone on to win about 60% of shootouts, a margin that can decide a knockout tie in a single kick.
The reason the search for World Cup extra time rules spikes now is simple: knockout matches can end level and go straight to penalties, as Argentina and France showed in the 2022 World Cup final, which finished 3-3 before Argentina won 4-2 from the spot. In that setting, the coin toss is not a minor prelude. Since a 2003 rule change, the toss winner has been allowed to choose whether to take the first penalty or go second, and that choice sits at the center of the advantage research. Earlier studies of major competitions from 1970 to 2003 found the team taking the first penalty won 60.5% of the time, while later work put the shootout win rate for the toss winner at about 60% and the win rate for the team shooting first at 51%.
Mikael Jamil helped examine more than 1,700 penalties across four seasons from 2015-16 to 2018-19, and the pattern that emerged was not the same everywhere. In his 2020 paper in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, shots down the middle were statistically linked to success in the Premier League, while La Liga leaned toward the bottom-left and bottom-right corners. A long run-up of more than six steps was associated with success in all four leagues, and a medium run-up of two to five steps worked everywhere except Italy. Short run-ups were not a significant advantage anywhere.
That variation matters because the safest-seeming choice is not always the most effective one. In England, only placement was significantly linked with success, while both placed and powerful penalties worked in Spain, Italy and Germany. Placement was preferred in the Premier League and Serie A, power in La Liga and the Bundesliga, and Panenka-style chips were not significantly successful anywhere. A small 2002 study had already suggested that penalties hit at about 75% of maximum power offered the best balance, since less-powerful efforts were easier to save and harder-hit shots more likely to miss. The larger point is that the shootout is not just a test of nerve; it is a sequence shaped by order, technique and the narrowest of margins.
For teams in World Cup knockout matches, that leaves one unresolved edge that can still tilt a title: once extra time ends level, the toss choice comes first, and the best penalty itself depends on where and how a player is taking it. The final can be decided by a single kick, but the research suggests the contest may already be leaning before that ball is struck.
