The Chicago White Sox arrived in Baltimore for a three-game series carrying first place in the AL Central, tied with the Cleveland Guardians and far from the club many expected to see here. They have gone 39-30 since April 8th and now own 43 wins, the second-best total in the AL behind only the Yankees and Rays.
That is why White Sox vs Orioles is drawing attention now. The matchup lands with Chicago four games over.500 and leading a division after a season that began with much lower expectations. PECOTA had the White Sox at 69 wins, Hannah Filippo had them at 74, and last year they won 60 games. This version has already shown enough offense and run prevention to make the standings look upside down.
The numbers behind the jump are sturdy enough to explain the place on the board. The White Sox have scored 388 runs and allowed 369, carry a 4.25 ERA, and have gotten 5.1 fWAR from starting pitching and 2.0 fWAR from relief. FanGraphs ranks the lineup as the sixth-best hitting team in baseball, and the production has come from several places at once. Miguel Vargas is hitting.252/.366/.500 with 19 home runs, Colson Montgomery has 20 home runs and 14 doubles, and Randal Grichuk has added nine home runs and an OPS over 1.000 since signing in early May.
There is still a catch in the rise. The White Sox were only 11-12 in June, a reminder that first place has not come from nonstop dominance, and their margin is narrow enough that one rough stretch could change the picture quickly. Munetaka Murakami has also been missing since May 29th with a hamstring injury, even though he was slated to return in early July, so the lineup that has carried Chicago has not even been fully available.
That is what makes the series in Baltimore more than another date on the schedule. The White Sox are trying to protect a first-place position that few saw coming, and they are doing it without their best hitter. If Murakami comes back on schedule in early July, Chicago could get stronger just as the season begins to separate contenders from everyone else.
