Steve is backing Qinwen Zheng at 2.20 for 2 units on Day 1 of Wimbledon, challenging the market’s view that Katerina Siniakova should be favourite in their first-round match.
The price implies a 45.5% chance of a Zheng win before margin is added, and the staking plan means a full loss would cost 2 units. For readers looking at this match now, that is the point: the recommendation is not for a huge swing, but for a line that suggests Zheng is being undervalued.
That case leans on form more than reputation. Siniakova has gone out in the first round at Bad Homburg, been beaten comfortably by Pegula in Berlin and has won just one of her last three matches on grass, all while still carrying a strapped knee at times. Zheng has had her own uneven stretch too, losing to Gibson in Nottingham and reaching the quarter-final stage in Bad Homburg, yet the view is that her level is trending in the right direction.
The friction is that the favourite’s status does not sit neatly with the recent grass numbers. Siniakova is widely respected as an elite doubles player who has shown she can handle grass in singles as well, which helps explain why the market has not moved fully away from her. But Zheng’s lower-than-usual break-point conversion has also been a drag, and if that number normalises even a little, the 2.20 line starts to look less like a gamble and more like a fair ask.
For now, the bet is straightforward: back Zheng at the price, take the 2-unit risk, and trust that the first-round match will reflect the steadier upward trend rather than the mixed results that have left Siniakova installed as the market leader. The next move belongs to the court, and it will decide whether that favourite tag survives the opening day at Wimbledon 2026.
