Bekzat Almakhan is set to face Jean Matsumoto at UFC Baku inside the National Gymnastics Arena, and the betting board already has Matsumoto in front. Matsumoto is listed at -165, while Almakhan opens as the +135 underdog.
That is why the matchup is drawing attention now. Almakhan has one win in three octagon appearances, and his last trip ended in another loss. Matsumoto also comes in off a defeat, but the market still gives him the edge heading into the bout.
The numbers help explain the view. Matsumoto has won three UFC fights against Dan Argueta, Brad Katona and Miles Johns, while also dropping two against Rob Font and Farid Basharat. He earned his UFC contract at Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023, after winning titles in the Standard Fighting Tournament and Fight Pro Championship. He also brings a Muay Thai base and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, a mix that has made him look like the more complete fighter on paper.
Almakhan’s case is simpler, and more fragile. He signed with the UFC in 2023 after a strong run elsewhere, but the step up has been rough. He beat Brad Katona, yet he has also lost to Umar Nurmagomedov and Aleksandre Topuria in his other two UFC fights. In his most recent outing, he struggled to defend takedowns against Topuria, which is the kind of problem that can turn a close fight into a bad night quickly.
That is the friction in this booking: both men are arriving with losses, but Matsumoto is still the favorite. One side has more UFC wins, more ways to win and a deeper resume inside the cage. The other has the kind of power and upside that keeps him live, but not enough of a track record to move the odds in his favor.
The bout now sits as a test of whether Almakhan can turn limited experience into a result against a fighter the market trusts more. The exact date for UFC Baku is not given, but this is the fight on the board now, and it is already being priced as Matsumoto’s to lose.
