Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar 3-1 in Seattle on Wednesday and moved to the brink of the World Cup last 32, putting the United States on course for a knockout-stage meeting. The result did not just add points; it nearly fixed the bracket, with Bosnia now projected to land in the round that would send it against the U.S. in San Francisco on Wednesday, July 1.
That is why so many readers are searching for the Mexico Round Of 32 Opponent now: the answer, in practical terms, is Bosnia. The Athletic’s projection model gives Bosnia greater than a 99 per cent chance of finishing as one of the eight-best third-placed sides, and that is the lane that leads to the last 32. Bosnia opened with a 1-1 draw against Canada and then absorbed a heavy loss to Switzerland before Wednesday’s win over Qatar reset its path.
The weight of that path sits on Edin Dzeko, Bosnia’s captain and talisman. He is 40 years old, but he keeps doing what Bosnia needs most from him: scoring. He has found the net in 20 successive years for his country, a run that explains why he still anchors everything Bosnia tries to do despite the passing years.
There is another layer to this matchup that gives it extra force. Esmir Bajraktarevic, born in Appleton, Wisconsin, played for the USMNT against Slovenia in a January 2024 friendly before declaring for Bosnia later that year. His parents are from Srebrenica, Bosnia, and their family history sits in the shadow of the Bosnian War, when an estimated 100,000 people died between 1992 and 1995. Bosnia’s rise in this tournament is tied to that history and to the long road from recognition to the World Cup stage.
Bosnia reached this position the hard way, coming from behind against Wales and Italy in the play-offs, equalising late in both the play-off semi-final and the play-off final, then surviving extra time and winning on penalties each time. That route matters because it shows how little Bosnia has been given and how much it has taken. If the projection model holds, the U.S. will get Bosnia next, and it will not be meeting a side that simply arrived — it will be meeting one that has already spent this tournament proving it can come back when the match turns against it.
