The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to get back into the win column on Saturday, June 20, and they will do it with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound against the New York Mets. The left-hander is the reason the matchup has drawn so much attention: Philadelphia believes he can tilt a game that is expected to be decided by a few runs, if that.
Sanchez enters with numbers that explain the confidence. He ranks in the 99th percentile in pitching run value, carries a 2.95 xERA and a.222 xBA, and his 116 strikeouts rank second in the majors. He has also delivered a run of consistency that matters to anyone sizing up the Phillies now: the Under has cashed in each of his last seven starts.
That is the backdrop for why this game is being searched today. Both clubs have been stuck in shallow offensive water over the last month, with the New York Mets 23rd in runs scored at 102 and 23rd in batting average at.235, while the Philadelphia Phillies are 24th in runs scored with 99. The Mets have also hit just.238 against southpaws, which only adds to the sense that this is likely to be a pitching-first night.
The wrinkle is that the other side is not without a path. Mets starter Freddy Peralta has historically had success against the Phillies lineup, and that history is part of what keeps this from being a clean read. Only Bryce Harper and Edmundo Sosa have hit better than.200 against Peralta among the Phillies hitters mentioned, with Harper at 3-for-14 and Sosa at 2-for-5. That does not erase Sanchez’s edge, but it does explain why Philadelphia cannot assume a comfortable night simply because the numbers lean its way.
The betting case around the game is built on more than one trend. The New York Mets are 2-9 as the road underdog this season, and Sanchez’s recent streak has lined up with the kind of low total that often decides a matchup before the late innings even begin. FanGraphs has him as the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young, and if that assessment holds, this is the sort of start that would keep him there. For the Phillies, the next few hours are less about style than result: if Sanchez is sharp again, the game should stay tight enough for one swing to matter.
