Marina Mabrey is about to be asked for more, and Toronto has little choice but to lean on her. With Brittney Sykes and Kiki Rice out and Nyara Sabally possibly unavailable, the Toronto Tempo visit the Connecticut Sun tonight with Mabrey carrying the biggest offensive burden on the floor.
That shift matters because Toronto says it could be missing as much as 51% of its scoring, a hole large enough to change how the game is played and how the market prices it. Mabrey already tops the team in usage, and she has taken 15 or more field goal attempts in three of her last four outings, well above her 13.6 average.
The number on her scoring prop reflects that workload, but only partly. The Over 20.5 line is expected to sit around -130, and Jason Logan has her projected at 22 points, just two points higher than the posted total. That is the kind of edge bettors look for when one player’s role expands faster than the number does, and Logan’s call on the WNBA pick is Over.
Mabrey has already shown what this matchup can look like. On June 10, she took 20 shots and scored 21 points against the Connecticut Sun, and the Tempo and Sun played Over the total in Toronto with 192 points in regulation before overtime. The closing number that night was 166.5 O/U, a line that did not come close to holding once the pace and shot volume picked up.
Still, this is not a clean repeat of that first meeting. The Connecticut Sun have gotten healthier over the past week, while Toronto’s injury list is doing the opposite to its rotation. Toronto is also a poor road defense, ranking dead last in defensive rating away from home at 119.7 and last in opponent PITP and SCP as a visitor, which leaves little room for a short-handed team to survive if Mabrey does not carry the scoring load again.
That is why the question tonight is not whether Mabrey will be involved; it is whether the increased usage turns into another 20-plus-point game before the market catches up. If Toronto is missing that much offense and Mabrey keeps firing, the Over looks justified even with a healthier Sun side waiting on the other end.
