Spain opens its World Cup campaign today against Cape Verde in Atlanta, and the match arrives with two storylines colliding at once: a first-time World Cup team on one side, and a reigning European champion on the other. Luis de la Fuente goes into it with 26 players available after Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal and Víctor Muñoz recovered from discomfort.
That is why the game is drawing attention now. Spain begins the tournament unbeaten in 31 official matches and ranked second in the FIFA standings, while Cabo Verde makes its World Cup debut from 67th place. The two teams have never met, which makes the opening whistle less familiar than the numbers around it.
Opta’s simulations explain why Spain is being treated as the favorite before a ball is kicked. After 25,000 combinations, Spain was projected as the most likely winner of the World Cup in New Jersey on 19 July, with a 15.96% chance of lifting the trophy. France followed at 13.28%, England at 10.18%, Argentina at 9.96% and Portugal at 7.98%, while Spain was given an 87.2% chance of beating Cabo Verde today. The same model gave Cabo Verde a 4.8% chance of winning and an 8.1% chance of a draw.
De la Fuente has tried to cool that kind of talk. “No es un hándicap ser favorito, pero, ¿somos más favoritos que Francia, Brasil o Argentina?” he said, a reminder that Spain can carry the label without letting it define the match. He also put the focus on the immediate task, saying: “El partido más importante es el de Cabo Verde.”
That stance fits the moment. Spain arrived in Atlanta with a full squad only after the late recovery of Williams, Yamal and Muñoz, who had kept from working at full pace in Las Rozas, and that gives the coach room to choose whether to lean on pace, control or a more cautious start. Cabo Verde, meanwhile, is already playing the biggest match in its history, having reached this stage without ever appearing in a World Cup before.
Spain’s favorite status is real, but so is the uncertainty that comes with an opening game against an opponent with nothing to lose. The next answer will come from De la Fuente’s selection and the first hour in Atlanta, where Spain must turn its numbers into a result and Cabo Verde gets its first World Cup chance to say it belongs.
