XRP is flirting with the $1 line again, and the market is treating that level like a trapdoor. Kalshi traders put the chance of XRP falling below $1 in June at 49%, while the token remains down nearly 70% from its 2025 high.
That is why the XRP price is back in focus now. A move under $1 would mark a fresh break in a long slide, but it would also land against a backdrop of real money already moving in. The new spot XRP ETFs launched last year and pulled in more than $1 billion in their first 50 days, a sign that some investors are still willing to own the token even after its sharp retreat.
Ripple is also trying to turn XRP into something more than a trade. The company raised $500 million from VC investors in November at a $40 billion valuation, then started buying back shares in March at an implied $50 billion valuation. Earlier this year, Mastercard included Ripple in its new Crypto Partner program, adding another layer of institutional attention to a project that is still trying to prove it can become a payments rail, not just a speculative asset.
The contradiction is hard to miss. Kalshi traders also give XRP a 19% chance of falling below $0.90, which is the kind of move that can force weaker holders out if $1 gives way. Yet the same setup is why some investors see a drop below $1 as an opportunity rather than a warning, because the token is already being framed as too cheap under that level. In other words, the market is pricing in both the risk of a break and the possibility that institutions step in to buy it.
What comes next is tied to that split. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is set to be signed into law this summer if it advances through Washington, and the possibility of clearer rules is part of the case for broader institutional adoption. If XRP holds $1, the bulls can argue the market has absorbed the worst of the selling. If it loses that level, the next argument will not be whether XRP is weak, but whether the dip is finally the entry point buyers have been waiting for.
