FIFA’s 2026 World Cup forecast rests on a simple condition: enough international fans have to show up. Last year, football’s governing body projected the tournament would add $30.5 billion in U.S. economic output and as much as $17.2 billion to GDP, but that outlook assumed at least 40% of visitors would come from abroad.
That question is pressing now because the largest World Cup ever kicks off Thursday, with 48 teams playing 104 games across the United States, Canada and Mexico. Spain and France are among the early favorites, and the opening matches are supposed to set the tone for a monthlong travel surge that host cities, hotels and tourism businesses have spent years preparing for. International travelers also spend roughly four times more per trip on average than domestic travelers, which is why the visitor mix matters almost as much as the total crowd.
In practice, the mix has not looked the way FIFA sketched it out. Rosanna Maietta said hotel demand in host cities has “evolved differently than many initially anticipated” because international visitation has been lower than expected, and Alan Fyall was blunter: Americans dominate ticket sales and hotel bookings thus far. FIFA had told host cities to expect a 50/50 split between domestic and international visitors, according to three tourism officials who work with the cities, but that balance has not emerged in the early data.
Some of the gap may still close once the tournament begins. Travelers from the 42 countries in the Visa Waiver Program can enter the United States for up to 90 days without a traditional visa, and Fyall said there is still a question about international visitors. He added that once a team starts winning, fans often change plans fast and “jump on planes.”
That has happened before. When Argentina reached the final against France at the 2022 World Cup, bookings to Qatar almost doubled, and IATA data showed most flight tickets for the final were bought two days before kickoff. FIFA’s own ticket-demand data says Argentina, England, Brazil and Germany consistently rank among the largest international markets, and England fans are expected to travel in groups of 12,000 to 15,000 for each of the team’s three group matches in Dallas, Boston and New Jersey.
The next checkpoint comes during the June 11-27 group stage, when the field drops from 48 teams to 32. By July 7, it will be down to 16, and that is the window in which late-arriving fans could still swing hotel occupancy, air travel and spending in the host cities. The tournament can still deliver the lift FIFA predicted, but only if the foreign visitors it counted on begin to arrive while the knockout race is still alive.
