San Francisco voters are likely to reject Proposition D, the Overpaid CEO Tax, by a double-digit margin after two-thirds of returned ballots were counted through the end of the week. The measure, pushed onto the June ballot by labor unions, is headed for defeat in a city that has often approved higher business taxes.
That makes the result a sharp turn for a campaign led by SEIU 1021 and IFPTE Local 21, and a rare loss for San Francisco’s most powerful unions. A source involved in the No on D effort summed up the final stretch with a blunt: “Let’s go, San Francisco” and “Let’s go defeat that darn tax.”
The race turned late. Mayor Daniel Lurie opposed the measure and became the face of the anti-tax campaign after staying out of direct negotiations earlier, and almost half of voters did not know he was against it. He got involved just days before the Feb. 2 deadline to submit signatures to the city’s Department of Elections, after behind-the-scenes talks between business leaders and labor unions failed to save what the business community had viewed as a 2024 grand bargain.
That late break mattered because the business side was not splintered this time. Billionaires Chris Larsen and Michael Moritz each wrote six-figure checks to support the opposition, Advance SF ran negative TV ads during the NBA playoffs, and the No on D side quickly made Lurie part of its closing argument. One source involved in the campaign said, “So we called in the Lurie cameo at the end.”
The contrast is hard to miss. San Francisco voters have spent two decades embracing higher business taxes at nearly every turn, yet Proposition D is on track to lose by a double-digit margin. A Chamber of Commerce poll had shown support for the measure ahead before the election, which only sharpens the question of how much the mayor’s late opposition changed the outcome.
For now, the answer appears to be enough to help sink it. The final count will continue, but unless the remaining ballots move sharply in one direction, Proposition D is headed for an official defeat and Lurie’s late intervention will stand out as the moment the campaign flipped.
