More than three-quarters of workers are not on course to save enough for a moderate retirement lifestyle, Pensions UK said this week, as it warned that only 23% of the working population are set to reach that level. The trade body’s latest figures show a sharp split in retirement readiness: 82% are projected to reach the minimum standard, but just 9% are in line for a comfortable retirement.

That is why the warning is landing now. The guide figures have risen compared with a year ago, mainly because food and socialising have become more expensive, and the estimates are meant to reflect what people are likely to spend once they stop work. For one person, the moderate standard is put at £32,700 a year, while a comfortable retirement is estimated at £45,400; for a couple, those figures rise to £45,400 and £62,700.

The minimum benchmark is much lower, at about £13,900 a year for one person and £22,500 for two people. It is designed around a more limited but still workable retirement, including a couple’s weekly groceries, a week’s holiday in the UK, eating out about once a month and some affordable leisure activities about twice a week. Pensions UK said the standards are intended as a guide for people planning retirement savings, not a fixed rule for every household.

The calculations behind the benchmarks are developed and maintained independently by the Centre for Research in Social Policy at Loughborough University. They are set out as post-tax income targets for minimum, moderate and comfortable living, and they exclude housing costs, which can be a decisive factor for many households. That is why the body said the standards should be adjusted for individual circumstances, especially where rent or mortgage payments will shape what retirement actually looks like.

The gap between the minimum and moderate standards is the clearest friction in the report. Most workers are expected to clear the floor, but far fewer are on track for the income level that would allow a broader retirement without constant trade-offs. Zoe Alexander said: “Without action, too many risk facing a cliff-edge drop in income when they stop work.”

Pensions UK said workers, employers and the government could all do more to encourage saving, but it did not set out a specific policy change. That leaves the same unresolved question hanging over the numbers: how many workers can still be nudged from the minimum standard into the moderate one before retirement arrives, and what would actually move them there?

The issue also lands against a wider policy backdrop. Last year, the government said it was reviving the Turner Pension Commission, which first reported in 2006 and helped lead to the rollout of automatic enrolment into pension saving. For now, the latest warning is less about what has already gone wrong than about how many workers may discover too late that the retirement they expected is not the one their savings will buy.