Martín Pérez will start for the Braves against the Pirates on Friday night, giving Atlanta the left-hander with the best ERA of his career if the season ended today. The Braves are coming off a series win over the Toronto Blue Jays and now turn to Pérez as they open a weekend set in Pittsburgh.
The assignment is not simple. Pittsburgh enters with a.540 record, a plus-37 run differential and the fourth-most runs in MLB, with only four fewer runs scored than Atlanta. Pérez has handled most of the season well, with a 2.79 ERA and a 20.5 percent strikeout rate, but his success has come with signs that some of it may not hold. His.226 BABIP against, 84.4 percent strand rate and 4.34 xERA sit well apart from the earned-run average, and his 42.0 percent hard-hit rate against leaves room for trouble against a lineup that has been productive all year.
That is why the matchup is drawing attention around pirates vs braves. Pérez also works with a fastball that averages 90.0 mph, and the Pirates have seen only six hitters on their current roster face him in his career, with none of them owning more than nine at-bats against the lefty. Brandon Lowe is 3-for-9 against Pérez, and Marcell Ozuna has done even more damage in a small sample, going 4-for-7 with a 1.700 OPS. Those numbers suggest Pittsburgh will have to lean on more than familiarity if it wants to break through early.
On the other side, Mitch Keller will start for the Pirates, and Atlanta has reasons to feel comfortable there too. Ronald Acuña has three home runs in 19 at-bats against Keller, Matt Olson has a 1.371 OPS in 12 at-bats, and Austin Riley owns a 1.055 OPS in 10 at-bats. Mauricio Dubón has also had success, while Michael Harris is at.500 OPS and Ha-Seong Kim is hitless in 11 at-bats. That makes the next layer of the game important for Atlanta: the Pirates bullpen has a 4.29 ERA and has been described as a clear weakness, which gives the Braves a path if they can force Keller out early and carry the pressure to the middle innings.
The more immediate question is whether Pérez can keep pitching like an ace against an offense that has already shown it can score in bunches. Atlanta does not need him to dominate every inning. It needs him to be close enough, long enough, to hand off a lead before Pittsburgh gets to the part of the game where it has been most vulnerable.
