Rep. Dusty Johnson finished third in South Dakota’s Republican gubernatorial primary this week, ending his bid for governor and leaving Gov. Larry Rhoden and businessman Toby Doeden to move on to a runoff. Johnson entered the race as an early front-runner, but he did not make the final cut.
The result matters beyond South Dakota because Johnson is now part of a growing list of House members losing elections after giving up their seats to chase statewide office. The pattern has cut across both parties. Among Republicans, Wesley Hunt, Chip Roy, Buddy Carter and Randy Feenstra have also fallen short in statewide bids, while Democrats Jasmine Crockett, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly have done the same.
Rhoden’s advance gives Republicans a governor’s race that will now be decided between him and Doeden, who forced the runoff after no candidate cleared the bar in the primary. Rhoden was elevated to the office after Kristi Noem joined the White House Cabinet, and he now has a direct path to keeping the post if he can win the next round.
Johnson’s finish is the sharpest example yet of how quickly a House campaign can unravel once it leaves the comfort of a congressional district and enters a statewide primary. He had been seen early on as the front-runner, but that standing did not hold once South Dakota voters weighed the full field. The same dynamic has been visible in other states, where lawmakers with national profiles have found that name recognition alone is not enough to carry a statewide race.
For Johnson, the immediate answer is that the governor’s race is over. For House Republicans and Democrats watching from Washington, the larger warning is harder to miss: leaving Congress for a bigger office has turned into a costly gamble, and this week’s South Dakota vote added one more name to that list.
