Four Republicans are competing in New Jersey's GOP primary on Tuesday for the chance to challenge U.S. Sen. Cory Booker in November, betting that a state long dominated by Democrats may be more open to a change than the numbers suggest. Robert S. Lebovics, Justin Murphy, Richard Tabor and Alex Zdan are on the ballot as the party looks for a candidate who can turn a primary win into something bigger.
The race is drawing attention because Booker has already won New Jersey three times since he was first elected in 2013, and he enters this campaign with more than $32 million in cash as of May. New Jersey has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1972, and Democrats outnumber Republicans there by about 859,000, a gap that has defined every modern Senate contest in the state.
Still, Republicans are arguing that the state is not as unreachable as it once looked. Donald Trump improved his margin in New Jersey by about 10 points from 2020 to 2024 and flipped five counties, while Jack Ciattarelli came close to defeating former Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021. More recently, Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill beat Ciattarelli by more than 14 points in November and flipped back all the counties that went to Trump in 2024, a reminder that the state can still snap back to form when turnout changes.
Murphy, who describes himself as a pro-life Reagan Republican, said he knows how steep the climb is. He said Republicans are outnumbered and outspent, but still have a shot at a major upset if they can tap into frustration over prices, national politics and a country where a recent New York Times poll found 59% of voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the presidency. A late March Rutgers-Eagleton poll found just 26% of New Jerseyans had a favorable opinion of Trump, a warning sign for any Republican trying to build a coalition in the state.
Tabor, a former New Jersey State Police trooper who was suspended in April amid an internal investigation, is trying to keep the focus on turnout and the conditions that helped Republicans close the gap in recent cycles. He argued that the 43-day government shutdown was weaponized by Democrats in New Jersey and nationally to drive votes against Republicans and said he expects that to be less of a factor in 2026. Eric Arpert said the party is increasingly shaped by the national mood, but argued that candidates can still make a positive case for New Jersey and get a response from voters.
The larger question is not whether Booker is vulnerable in a vacuum; it is whether any of the four Republicans can emerge from Tuesday with enough momentum to make the November race competitive. Murphy put it bluntly: the party is in a tough position, but he said Republicans still have an opportunity to pull off a major upset — and that if he did not believe it, he would not be there. For now, the primary will decide only who gets the first shot at testing that theory against a senator who has won statewide three times and starts with money, history and registration numbers on his side.
