Mitchell Moses was ruled out of Wednesday night’s State of Origin opener with a shock injury, and the fallout has left Nathan Cleary carrying more than just NSW’s halfback duties. With Moses gone, Cleary has effectively become the Blues’ entire kicking game.
That is a heavy ask in a match where territory will matter as much as tempo. Queensland, by contrast, can spread the load. Cameron Munster, Sam Walker, Kalyn Ponga and Harry Grant all regularly handle general play kicking duties at club level, while James Tedesco rarely kicks for the Roosters and Reece Robson is not a genuine long-kicking threat. NSW has fewer escape hatches, and that makes every Cleary touch more valuable.
The concern is not theoretical. In round six, the Bulldogs produced a masterclass in how to pressure Penrith’s halfback by rushing after Cleary all night from the inside and out. The pressure left him second-guessing himself, the kind of hesitation Origin opponents will try to force again when the game gets tight and field position starts to decide possession.
That is why Ethan Strange is being watched closely as an escape valve and a possible way to unsettle Cleary’s rhythm, even if he is not the obvious headline act. Strange’s strength is his running game, and he is largely a back-up option when it comes to the Raiders’ game management. In his most recent clash against Cleary’s Panthers, he finished with two kicks for 33 metres, while Ethan Sanders had 21 kicks for 660 metres in the same match. The contrast underlines the point: Strange can move the ball and probe, but he is not the sort of heavy-volume kicker that can replace a sidelined playmaker by himself.
Paul Crawley called the prospect “scary”, and that word fits the position NSW has been pushed into. Moses’ late withdrawal has tightened the spotlight on Cleary because there is no easy second kicking option to share the load, and Queensland’s deeper kicking flexibility gives them more ways to shape the contest. The Blues can still win if Cleary controls territory and decision-making, but if the Bulldogs’ round six blueprint works again, the burden on him will become the defining feature of the night.
What happens next is straightforward: NSW must find a way to protect its halfback from being isolated, while Queensland will test whether the Blues have anything left behind Cleary when the game turns into a battle of kicks, pressure and patience.
