The 2026 State of Origin opener will be played at Sydney’s Accor Stadium tonight, with the Blues and Maroons set to run out in a series that usually turns quickly on the smallest details. Kick-off is scheduled for 8.05pm AEST, and forecast rain could make the first clash of the year a slippery one.
The teams will not be locked in until an hour before kick-off, which leaves a narrow window for any late changes. The Blues are rated $1.65 favourites, while Queensland is at $2.25, a price that reflects both NSW’s home advantage and the uncertainty that comes with a wet night in Sydney.
One of the biggest selection questions hanging over the series is Latrell Mitchell, whose back injury is still troubling him, according to Code Sports. The Rabbitohs and Blues star could miss Origin II, and he is likely to sit out South Sydney’s Round 14 match against Manly as well. That matters because the Bunnies have the bye this weekend, and Origin sides are picked after Round 14, leaving Mitchell without a match setting to prove his fitness before Game II squads are announced.
The timing puts pressure on NSW selectors and on Mitchell himself. If he cannot get through football before the squads are finalised, the case for including him in Origin II becomes far harder to make, no matter how important he remains to the Blues when fully fit.
There was also fresh noise around the NSW side after the Blues moved to shut down rumours that Laurie Daley could make a shock late change. The response was simple: “We’ll sort that out.” It was the kind of answer that keeps the door open without revealing much, which is exactly how Origin camp tends to sound when the real decisions are still being made behind closed doors.
For now, the focus turns to tonight’s opener in Sydney, where weather, selection calls and a tight favourite line all point to a game that could be decided by who handles the conditions best. The series begins with little margin for error, and the next major selection call is already waiting after Round 14.
