Francesca Jones will meet Beatriz Haddad Maia in the first round of the French Open Women’s Singles 2026 on Sunday, with the match set to start at 9:30 AM ET. Dimers’ tennis model makes Jones the most likely winner, giving her a 57% chance to beat Haddad Maia in the opening round.
The same model gives Jones a 56% chance of taking the first set, while Haddad Maia plus 2.5 has a 53% chance of covering the games spread. The over 21.5 games is also projected at 53%, pointing to a match that could stay tight if the early exchanges go as expected.
The forecast comes from updated simulations built into Dimers’ tennis model, which is being used to frame betting odds and picks for the French Open 2026 first-round matchup. Even so, the top play to make on the match is Beatriz Haddad Maia to win, a call that runs against the model’s lean toward Jones and gives the meeting a split read before a ball is struck.
That tension matters because first-round Grand Slam matches can hinge on small margins, especially when the numbers suggest both a narrow favorite and a competitive total. Jones heads into Sunday as the model’s preferred winner, but the betting recommendation favors Haddad Maia, leaving the matchup balanced between projection and pick as the tournament begins.
By Sunday morning in New York, the question will no longer be what the simulations suggest. It will be whether Francesca Jones can turn a 57% forecast into a win when the French Open starts to sort out its first-round surprises.
