Karen Khachanov is scheduled to meet Arthur Gea in the first round of the French Open Men’s Singles 2026 on Sunday, with the match set to start at 7:00pm AEST. Stats Insider’s model gives Khachanov an 84% chance of winning after running 10,000 simulations of the matchup.
The numbers point clearly one way. TAB lists Khachanov at $1.22 and Gea at $4.33 on the head-to-head market, while the first-set odds have Khachanov at $1.40 and Gea at $3.00. For bettors looking for a broader read on Khachanov’s recent form and market profile, a related preview is available in the matchup analysis for Miomir Kecmanović vs Karen Khachanov in Hamburg.
This is a prediction and betting-odds piece, not a match report, and the prices were current at the time of publication but can change before the opening point. Stats Insider says its model uses advanced machine learning and data alongside those 10,000 simulations, which is why the market has Khachanov priced as the clear favorite for Sunday’s opener. Gea, though, gets the chance to turn a lopsided forecast into something far less comfortable if he can make the early sets competitive.
That is the edge in a first-round match like this: the favorite arrives with the probability, but the underdog has the first few games to disrupt it. If the market holds, Khachanov is expected to move through; if it shifts, Sunday night in Australian Eastern Standard Time will be the first place it shows.
