The Braves open a three-game series against the Nationals on Friday night in a matchup that pairs the two most productive offenses in the majors by runs scored. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. EDT, and Bryce Elder was expected to get the start for Atlanta even though he had not been officially announced.
That matters because the Nationals have scored more runs than any other team in MLB, while the Braves are second, a jarring twist for a series that also brings together a club with the best run differential in the league and another that has been one of baseball’s surprises at the plate. Atlanta entered the night with the most wins in MLB and had reached 35 victories faster than it had since the rebuild ended in 2018.
Elder has given the Braves a steadier look than his surface numbers might suggest. He has produced 1.4 fWAR this season, 0.4 shy of his career high, and his expected ERA sits at 3.02. Before this year, his best xERA was 4.29 in 2022. He also has the best strikeout and walk rates of his career this season, along with a 6.6 percent HR/FB rate. Atlanta has leaned on him more than anyone else in its rotation; Elder leads the club in innings pitched.
He already has one data point against Washington this year. In his earlier start against the Nationals, Elder worked 6.2 innings, allowed three earned runs on three hits, gave up one homer, struck out six and walked two in a 9-4 Braves win. His last outing before Friday was an 8.0-inning start against the Red Sox, another sign that he is carrying a larger workload than he did earlier in the season.
The matchup also tilts toward Atlanta in a very specific way against Washington’s likely starter. Miles Mikolas has struggled badly, with a 6.91 ERA across 41.2 innings pitched, a 1.488 WHIP, a 6.20 FIP and 10.4 hits allowed per nine innings. If the Nationals go with him, the Braves have reason to like the numbers in their lineup more than usual. Ronald Acuña was not yet known to be playing on May 22, but he and Ozzie Albies each had 20 at-bats against Mikolas. Acuña carried a.400 OPS in those matchups, while Albies posted a.674 OPS and homered once. Matt Olson had 15 at-bats against Mikolas and did more damage, with two home runs and a 1.067 OPS. Michael Harris has also hit him well, batting.455 in 11 at-bats.
There is still some unevenness inside the clean offensive narrative. Washington’s bats have been the story, but the pitching has been the problem, as shown by the Nationals’ second-worst ERA in MLB. Atlanta, meanwhile, is trying to win another series after an uncharacteristic showing in the opener, and the Braves will also have Chadwick Tromp making his first start of the year. For a team chasing stability at the start of the weekend, Friday’s game is less about the headline and more about whether its top-end offense can turn another favorable matchup into a series edge.
If Elder gives Atlanta length again, the Braves can keep pressing a record that already says more about their season than any one game can. If he does not, a night built around the two best run-scoring teams in baseball could quickly become another reminder that the numbers telling the story on paper do not always agree with what happens first.
